Tuesday, September 30, 2008

The Post-American World, by Fareed Zakaria

Want to feel good about the world and about yourself? Even empowered? Reading The Post-American World, by Fareed Zakaria, might do it. It accomplishes this by being a remarkably fine book. It is very carefully analyzed, it has a large scope, and it rings true. That it is optimistic is a nice plus. Fareed Zakaria comes across as an optimist and a realist at the same time. It is indeed a pleasure to read him.

There have been three tectonic power shifts in the last 500 years, says Zakaria: the rise of the West, the rise of the U.S., and the rise of the rest, which we are living through now. In 2006 and 2007 there have been 124 countries that grew at a rate of 4 percent or more, including more than 30 countries in Africa, two-thirds of the continent. The tallest building in the world is in Taipei, and it will soon be overtaken by one being built in Dubai. The biggest shopping mall is in Beijing, the biggest plane is built in Russia and Ukraine, the largest factories are all in China, the biggest movie industry is Bollywood, and the world's richest man is Mexican.

The number living on less than a dollar a day has fallen from 40 percent in 1981 to 18 percent in 2004. China has lifted more than 400 million out of poverty. And for the first time in history, we are witnessing global growth. It is the birth of a truly global order. Power is shifting from the nation-state up, down, and sideways. At the political/military level we are living in a one-power world. But in every other dimension--industrial, financial, educational, social, cultural--power is moving away from American dominance. What will a post-American world mean?

It feels like a very dangerous world. But, says Zakaria, it isn't. There is a trend away from major wars. Islam terror is a large and persistent problem, but it involves a small number of fanatics and is no as threatening as Hitler and Stalin were, or even China, in the 20th century. Since 2001, governments have been aggressively breaking up terrorist networks. Since 9/11, Al Qaeda has been unable to launch a major attack anywhere.

Today's relative calm has a deep structural basis: economics is trumping politics. We are living through the far largest increase ever in the world's economy. Between 1990 and 2007, the global economy grew from $22.8 trillion to $53.3 trillion. The financial force that has powered the new era is the free movement of capital. Currency traders swap about $2 trillion a day. Once a threat, the war on hyperinflation has been won. There are only 12 countries in the world today where inflation exceeds 15 percent, and most of them are failed states, such as Haiti.

Focusing on the gloom, says Zakaria, has left us unprepared to see that many of the problems we face are the problems of success. One way to see India and China is as two great global deflation machines, pumping out goods (China) and services (India) for a fraction of what they would cost to produce in the West. Urban India is bursting with enthusiasm--boisterous, colorful, open, vibrant, and ready for change. One of the poorest countries in the world, India nonetheless looks strikingly similar to the richest, America. Its democracy, 50 years old, is truly extraordinary. It is poised to become a great power at last. The nuclear agreement proposed between India and the U.S. is a big deal. It puts India on a par with U.S., Britain, France, Russia, and China.

But Zakaria advises the U.S. to reduce nuclear weapons; build broad rules, not narrow interests; recommit to the mechanics and institutions for problem-solving and adjudication; and engage with other countries.

The U.S. must stop cowering in fear and regain its confidence. By almost all objective measures, the U.S. is in a blessed position today. But somehow we have managed to spook ourselves in a time of worldwide peace and prosperity. Since 9/11 the terrorist alert has never fallen below yellow. The U.S. spent $1 trillion on military responses to Islam extremism. But only two or three extremely minor terrorist plots have been uncovered in the entire country. Diplomacy would be more efficient and cheaper, less than $10 billion. In the event of a terrorist attack, Stephen Flynn of the Council of Human Relations says we should first ensure that it causes as little disruption as possible--economic, social, and political. What we're doing now is likely to produce the opposite effect. At the end of the day, openness is America's greatest strength.

"Historically, America has succeeded not because of the ingenuity of its government programs but because of the vigor of its society. It has thrived because it has kept itself open to the world--to goods and services, to ideas and inventions, and, above all, to people and cultures. This openness has allowed us to respond quickly and flexibly to new economic times, to manage change and diversity with remarkable ease, and to push forward the boundaries of individual freedom and autonomy. It has allowed America to create the first universal nation, a place where people from all over the world can work, mingle, mix, and share in a common dream and a common destiny."

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